11 June 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight South Africa’s move to review COVID restrictions due to the court ruling some government measures as unconstitutional and what this means for business operations, as well as the prospects for Venezuela’s COVID humanitarian aid and more.

 

11 June 2020 – South Africa

Predictions:

  • Court ruling will force government to review COVID-19 restrictions, but major changes affecting business operations are unlikely
  • Government’s appeal alongside 14-day review period will complicate policing of lockdown measures in coming weeks
  • Immediate changes to lockdown rules will focus on easing unpopular social restrictions and relaxing constraints on shops and small businesses

 

11 June 2020 – Venezuela

Predictions:

  • Government-opposition agreement on COVID-19 aid will marginally increase potential for wider dialogue
  • Deal will allow greater mobilisation of national resources to combat COVID-19, which could create precedent for broader talks
  • Both sides will however remain wary of boosting their rival’s legitimacy, meaning overall political deadlock will continue

 

10 June 2020 – Jordan

Predictions:

  • Government will press firms to support workers and maintain employment after allowing companies in COVID-19 affected sectors to reduce wages
  • Protections for workers will ensure wage reductions do not provoke immediate unrest but will add to discontent over prices in longer term
  • Demonstrations will become more likely as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease, particularly if Israel attempts proposed Jordan Valley annexation on 1 July

 

10 June 2020 – Syria

Predictions:

  • Further clashes and airstrikes in Idlib likely in coming weeks, but Russia and Turkey will seek to restore ceasefire if fighting escalates significantly
  • Turkey and Russia will prioritise preserving bilateral relations and focus on COVID-19 outbreaks, meaning any major escalation will likely be brief
  • Even low-level clashes will hamper domestic COVID-19 response, with displacement fuelling virus’ spread within and beyond Idlib

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.