12 November 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we spotlight Pfizer’s recent vaccine breakthrough and what it means for the global economy, the impact of China’s travel restrictions on foreign business and the low turnout in Algeria’s constitutional referendum.

12 November 2020 – China

Predictions:

  • New restrictions on international travellers indicate COVID-19 containment measures will continue to disrupt foreign businesses in coming months
  • Heightened restrictions will limit risk of second wave, and progress on vaccines suggests conditions will gradually return to normal after winter
  • COVID-19 containment will support domestic economic recovery and growth in coming years, sustaining Chinese demand for global imports

 

11 November 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • Interim trial data from Pfizer’s vaccine candidate represents major breakthrough that will raise likelihood of return to economic normality
  • Further data will be required to fully assess impact of proposed vaccine, but it will very likely receive regulatory approval in coming week
  • Progress will be uneven between northern and southern hemispheres, but global return to normality now highly plausible in second half of 2021

 

11 November 2020 – Algeria

Predictions:

  • Low turnout in constitutional referendum indicates anti-government sentiment persists, ensuring sporadic protests will continue in coming months
  • Tebboune will call early parliamentary elections in wake of referendum, though announcement will likely be delayed while he remains ill with COVID-19
  • Constitutional change allowing army operations abroad suggests Algiers will consider limited cross-border deployment over instability in Libya and Mali

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.