13 August 2020
This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot
The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight how Brazil’s 100,000 COVID-19 deaths will influence government response to the outbreak, Algeria’s ban on Friday prayers to help contain the spread, plans to protect crucial economic sectors in the Philippines and more.
13 August 2020 – Brazil
Predictions:
- COVID-19 milestone of 100,000 dead is unlikely to lead government to alter its approach to virus outbreak
- Political divisions and lack of federal and state-level coordination mean effective action against virus will remain unlikely
- Emergency social support payments have supported President Bolsonaro’s popularity, but as these are phased out his popularity will fall
11 August 2020 – Algeria
Predictions:
- Ongoing ban on Friday prayers and fears of contagion will continue to prevent widespread unrest in coming weeks despite lockdown easing
- Government will seek to attribute recent natural disasters and service delivery problems to saboteurs to justify harsher crackdown on activists
- Socioeconomic grievances combined with frustration over lack of political reform will ensure larger demonstrations gradually resume in coming months
11 August 2020 – Philippines
Predictions:
- Bayanihan 2 Act shows COVID-19 response will prioritise protecting SMEs and vital sectors, while reduced handouts for poor will raise protest risk
- Government will hasten digital tax to boost revenue but also seek to protect growth by fast-tracking corporate income tax cut
- Any anti-government protests fuelled by socioeconomic hardship will attract harsh security response, which will limit their scale
11 August 2020 – Indonesia
Predictions:
- Increased inward and outbound travel will only bring limited economic benefits, ensuring uneven recovery over coming years
- Extent of economic challenge posed by COVID-19 will limit prospects for major boost in tourism and remittances
- Persistent unemployment will sustain risk of labour protests, with job creation bill particularly likely to trigger demonstrations in coming months
10 August 2020 – Global Themes
Predictions:
- WHO initiative unlikely to prevent ‘vaccine nationalism’, which will raise likelihood of two-tier global economic recovery in coming years
- US, China, UK and Germany appear most likely to start producing vaccines in coming months, but will all likely prioritise own citizens
- Delays ensure that poorer regions, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, will not see large-scale inoculation until well into 2022
