15 October 2020
This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot
The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight how Iran, Egypt and Mexico will face further large-scale economic challenges as a result of the pandemic.
15 October 2020 – Mexico
Predictions:
- USD 13.8 billion public-private infrastructure investment programme will help offset forecast 9.0% fall in GDP
- Agreement signals improvement in relations between left-wing government and business leaders, but president’s relationship with business will remain difficult
- Planned investments amount to only 1.3% of GDP and overall impact on economy and rising joblessness will be limited
14 October 2020 – Egypt
Predictions:
- Extension of payments for informal workers will fail to offset economic hardships caused by COVID-19, sustaining popular anger at government
- Recent sporadic protests will likely lose momentum but potential for unrest will increase around January and February anniversaries of 2011 uprising
- Government will renew negotiations with IMF over further economic support in next three to six months
14 October 2020 – Iran
Predictions:
- Tehran will tolerate protests in support of Azerbaijan, but will forcefully disperse any anti-government demonstrations amid rising COVID-19 cases
- Iran remains unlikely to impose nationwide restrictions despite rapid growth of COVID-19 cases, due to concerns over economic impact
- Additional local restrictions in virus hotspots will fail to tackle outbreak, leading to rising fatality rate over coming months
