16 April 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we examine how the virus will impact Brazil’s political stability, the tempo of fighting in Libya and more.

 

16 April 2020 – Brazil

Predictions:

  • Cabinet divisions over COVID-19 policies will hamper effective response to virus and may cause major political damage to Bolsonaro
  • Partial quarantine policy, largely driven by state governors without presidential backing, will raise risk of much higher death rates in May and June
  • Major public health disaster would undermine Bolsonaro’s public and congressional support, and could open route to impeachment

 

15 April 2020 – Libya

Predictions:

  • Tempo of fighting will slow in coming months despite continued clashes as pressure rises on both sides to respond to outbreak of COVID-19
  • First confirmed COVID-19 case in eastern city of Benghazi suggests Haftar will soon face outbreak in areas under LNA control
  • Haftar will maintain oil blockade while foreign backers continue support and global oversupply limits international pressure for him to lift embargo

 

15 April 2020 – Algeria

Predictions:

  • Inability to adequately address financial impact of COVID-19 will aggravate continued anti-government sentiment despite halt of street protests
  • Government will prioritise efforts to build public trust in order to deflect attention from inability to properly fund response to virus
  • Economic grievances exacerbated by COVID-19 will likely mean street protests return once curfew and social distancing measures are relaxed

 

15 April 2020 – Indonesia

Predictions:

  • Increased restrictions in Jakarta will be accepted for now, but rise in economic hardship will make these difficult to sustain
  • Arrests for looting show how risk of unrest will rise if Government fails to provide adequate social assistance to citizens
  • Risk of protests over moves to pass provocative legislation, including job creation bill, will persist despite pandemic

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