16 July 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight the prospects for a green economic recovery in 2020, what the delays to upcoming municipal elections in Brazil mean for the current government and more.

 

16 July 2020 – Brazil

Predictions:

  • Congress delays municipal elections by six weeks to November; vote is likely to see centrist parties benefit at expense of Bolsonaro
  • Elections will act as referendum on president and effectively kick off 2022 presidential race
  • Polls suggest that no single party has yet found sufficiently charismatic leader to dominate election campaign

 

14 July 2020 – Indonesia

Predictions:

  • Delays in COVID-19 spending reflect major bureaucratic dysfunction, which will persist despite president’s calls for improved governance
  • Ongoing bureaucratic weakness will ensure response to epidemic remains inadequate, meaning infection rates likely to continue rising
  • Poor handling of COVID-19 epidemic will undermine efforts to compete with other regional states to attract businesses relocating from China

 

13 July 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • Prospects for green economic recovery policies in 2020 limited, but this will only temporarily delay long-term trend towards decarbonisation
  • Need to prioritise economic recovery given severity of shock caused by COVID-19 pandemic will limit focus on environment across emerging markets
  • Continued rise in global concern over climate change will increase pressure on governments to prioritise environmental policy in future decades

 

10 July – Bangladesh

Predictions:

  • Closure of state-owned jute mills will prompt protests in coming months despite government’s plan to reopen them under PPPs by end of year
  • Dhaka will struggle to attract investment in short term given global economic conditions, meaning many mills will fail to reopen within six months
  • Environmental considerations will likely increase long-term demand for jute, but government will face limited pressure to resume operations this year

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.