18 June 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight China’s response to new cluster of COVID cases and the status of the country’s economic recovery. Doctors in Nigeria strike over lack of adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) in handling coronavirus patients and more.

 

18 June 2020 – China

Predictions:

  • New outbreaks of COVID-19 will prompt localised reintroduction of lockdowns in coming months, complicating economic recovery
  • Government will seek to alleviate rising unemployment but efforts will be constrained by conflicting central and local government concerns
  • Economic problems will increase pressure on President Xi from within government, raising risk of stalled or contradictory policy making

 

17 June 2020 – Nigeria

Predictions:

  • Doctors’ strike illustrates pressures Abuja will face in coming months amid budget cuts and ongoing healthcare crisis
  • Abuja will likely offer concessions to healthcare unions in attempt to bring end to strike and limit criticism over handling of pandemic
  • Jihadists will look to exploit government focus on COVID-19 by continuing high tempo of attacks in northeast

 

16 June – Indonesia

Predictions:

  • Jakarta’s easing of COVID-19 restrictions will help restart economy but lifting of lockdown measures as infections rise will prolong epidemic
  • Government will likely continue to use growth in testing rates to explain continued rise in infections given need to resume commercial activity
  • Further nationwide easing of restrictions likely in coming weeks, but timelines will vary across regions depending on local administrations

 

15 June 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • Criticism of Trump administration’s response to protests, combined with economic weaknesses, suggests president will likely fail to win second term
  • Racial issues will remain prominent theme throughout presidential campaign, sustaining worldwide focus on issue over coming months
  • Businesses will face complex reputational risks over attitudes to racial diversity, both if they are seen as opposing or supporting protest movement

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