18 September 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight how AMLO’s 2021 budget will create deep recession in Mexico, rise in protest over economic hardship in Libya, Pakistan’s flood relief impeded due to political conflict and much more.

 

17 September 2020 – Mexico

Predictions:

  • President’s fiscally conservative budget for 2021 and continued lack of stimulus will cause long and deep recession
  • Failure to adopt countercyclical stimulus will cause significant economic hardship and gradually erode AMLO’s popularity
  • Reduced federal financial support for local governments will cause some localised protests and sustain high crime levels

 

16 September 2020 – Libya

Predictions:

  • Further protests over living conditions and economic hardships likely, but militia presence and fears over COVID-19 will limit risk of escalation
  • Increasing COVID-19 infections will likely add to public anger, prompting demands for both HoR and GNA to do more to combat virus
  • COVID-19 restrictions and GNA efforts to balance relations with rival militias in west will reduce risk of major clashes in Tripoli despite recent unrest

 

16 September – Iraq

Predictions:

  • Easing of COVID-19 restrictions and public’s broad non-compliance with remaining containment measures will ensure infection rate remains high
  • Arbaeen religious pilgrimage will see large number of Shia travel to Karbala despite public health warnings, fuelling high new daily case count
  • Anti-government protests likely to grow around one-year anniversary in October, but are unlikely to escalate significantly due to government concessions

 

11 September – Kenya

Predictions:

  • Kenyatta will seek to act decisively over KEMSA scandal, likely leading to dismissal of certain officials over misuse of COVID-19 response funds
  • Public anger over corruption claims means health sector businesses and foreign firms involved in public procurement will face increased scrutiny
  • Media attention and elevated public awareness of scandal will increase risk of further protests in major cities in coming months

 

11 September – Pakistan

Predictions:

  • Government investment to address recent flooding will be hindered by political tensions and lasting costs of COVID-19
  • Limited testing and contact tracing mean second wave of COVID-19 remains likely despite recent reduction in infection rate
  • Risk of protests over socioeconomic and other issues will remain elevated in coming months but will have limited impact on business operations

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