2 July 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight how governments across Brazil, Egypt, the Philippines and South Africa attempt to curb the economic fallout from COVID-19.

 

2 July 2020 – Brazil

Predictions:

  • Likely further extension of COVID-19 emergency payments will boost support for government among poor and prevent destabilising levels of unrest
  • Government will continue payments through to September, which will significantly push up government debt
  • Payments will also help to provide some stimulus to support domestic consumption and hard-hit retail sector

 

1 July 2020 – Egypt

Predictions:

  • Government will struggle to curb unemployment caused by COVID-19 despite external financial support and renewed focus on privatisation
  • Financial initiatives aimed at preventing insolvencies and increased social spending will limit risk of unrest in coming months
  • Ongoing economic challenges and need for reforms to meet likely IMF commitments mean risk of protests will increase in longer term

 

30 June – Philippines

Predictions:

  • Statements indicate government will take on significant extra debt and introduce new revenue-raising measures to mitigate impact of pandemic
  • Government will be well-placed to secure international funding given low debt-GDP ratio and strong foreign exchange reserves
  • Ongoing rise in daily confirmed COVID-19 cases will require localised reimposition of containment measures, prolonging disruption to commerce

 

26 June 2020 – South Africa

Predictions:

  • Emergency budget will ease socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 but increased scrutiny of public spending will raise tensions within ruling party
  • Disruptive union protests remain likely over longer term but immediate increase in social spending will reduce risks of unrest in coming months
  • Zuma allies within ruling party will continue to frustrate efforts to cut public spending and reform state-owned firms over coming year

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.