21 May 2020
This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot
The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight the prospects for international travel as pandemic continues, the effectiveness of Iran’s policy changes to help improve the coronavirus response and more.
We look into the prospects for renewed international travel as COVID-19 lockdowns ease. How will air travel adhere to physical distancing guidelines, conduct temperature checks, PCR testing, the use of masks, and implementing key hygiene methods?
- Policy improvements will allow Tehran to better respond to COVID-19 but government will remain wary of measures that could further disrupt economy
- Easing of restrictions, including reopening of mosques, will raise risk of further wave of infections, potentially leading to targeted lockdowns
- Continuing economic deterioration will sustain risk of unrest over coming months but will have limited impact on regime stability
- IMF support will enable government to meet spending commitments and bolster economy amid COVID-19 outbreak
- Slowdown in commercial activity as result of virus will lead to rising unemployment, increasing anti-government sentiment in longer term
- Government’s relatively lax COVID-19 restrictions will see continued increase in infections in coming weeks
- Failure to curb COVID-19 infection rates will sustain major economic disruption over coming months, raising risk of recession in 2020
- Imposition of fines for breaches of social distancing orders will not have immediate impact, meaning daily new cases will continue to rise
- Economic impact of epidemic will increase poverty, raising longer-term risk of socioeconomic protests