23 April 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we assess the scientific developments as lockdown restrictions ease, Erdogan’s fundraising campaign to sustain national support and more.

 

23 April 2020 – Global Impact

Report:

COVID-19: Full assessment of the scientific developments as lockdown restrictions begin to ease worldwide

 

22 April 2020 – Turkey

Predictions:

  • Fundraising campaign will sustain short-term support for President but will not address underlying economic weakness exacerbated by COVID-19
  • Increasing budgetary pressures and declining foreign reserves will increase possibility of authorities seeking IMF assistance later in 2020
  • Increasing socioeconomic hardships will see anti-government sentiment rise over longer term, though health concerns will limit risk of unrest for now

 

21 April 2020 – India

Predictions:

  • Islamic State (IS) threats and new Kashmir-based group reflect militants’ persistent desire to target India but attacks will remain focused on Kashmir
  • Emergence of new militant organisation shows continuing local recruitment to insurgency, though attacks will remain largely small-scale
  • IS’s limited capabilities, combined with heightened COVID-19-related security, will reduce likelihood of successful IS attack in India proper

 

20 April 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • Debt suspension for poorer countries will facilitate improved responses to COVID-19, but long-term risk of sovereign crises will persist
  • IMF forecasts will likely be downgraded further, given probable extent of disruption and low consumer confidence in second half of 2020
  • Wider debt cancellation deal for poorer countries unlikely at present, which will sustain debt risk beyond COVID-19 crisis

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