24 December 2020
This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot
In this edition, we highlight how the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases across Thailand will likely result in an extension of the state of emergency, the consequences of Bolsonaro’s efforts to downplay the virus, how the new COVID-19 variant will likely increase the transmission rate and more.
24 December 2020 – Thailand
Predictions:
- Significant rise in COVID-19 cases will likely prompt extension of state of emergency, but will not prevent further protests in coming months
- Mass testing and quarantine measures at factories and food markets will disrupt production for firms with local suppliers
- Large-scale community spread of virus will be limited by lockdown measures, but these will further damage tourism industry and prolong economic recovery
23 December 2020 – Iran
Predictions:
- Supreme Leader’s support for nuclear deal suggests talks with Biden administration will take place, but breakthrough unlikely in next six months
- Biden may consider facilitating humanitarian payment channel as confidence-building measure, enabling Tehran to purchase COVID-19 vaccines
- Imports of COVID-19 vaccines in conjunction with domestic clinical trials may enable authorities to roll out vaccination programme next year
22 December 2020 – Brazil
Predictions:
- Bolsonaro’s downplaying of COVID-19 and courting of anti-vaxxer sentiment will prolong pandemic and delay economic recovery
- Continued friction between federal and state governments will undermine attempts to vaccinate populations
- Staff in Brazil will remain exposed to virus into at least late 2021, and related economic disruption will continue
21 December 2020 – Special Report
Predictions:
- Rapid growth of new SARS-CoV-2 variant in UK raises credible concerns of increased transmission, but vaccines will very likely remain effective
- Widespread travel bans will likely remain in place until end of year, but new variant will probably already be circulating widely beyond UK
- Affected countries will need to implement stricter lockdowns if increased transmissibility of new variant is confirmed
