26 November 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we examine how Iran’s limited vaccine access will cause the government to increase restrictions, the trajectory of Indonesia’s vaccination programme and the effectiveness of Zelenskiy lockdown measures given public opposition and economic pressures.

25 November 2020 – Iran

Predictions:

  • Limited access to COVID-19 vaccine will necessitate long-term restrictions to contain virus, fuelling hardliner criticism of President Rouhani
  • Rouhani may use humanitarian concerns over virus to raise pressure on US President-elect Biden to ease sanctions in early 2021
  • Prolonged outbreak may prompt officials to manipulate infection rates to encourage turnout at June polls and boost legitimacy of new government

 

25 November 2020 – Indonesia

Predictions:

  • RCEP agreement likely to provide limited overall economic benefit, but will significantly reduce costs across regional supply chains
  • Government will hope to build on agreement by negotiating further reductions in non-tariff barriers to further boost regional trade
  • Mass vaccination highly unlikely to begin this year, but deal to secure AstraZeneca candidate will ensure programme can begin in 2021

 

20 November 2020 – Ukraine

Predictions:

  • Government will avoid national lockdown due to public opposition and economic pressures, but rising COVID-19 cases over winter will require harsher measures
  • Ongoing crisis with Constitutional Court will risk delays to international funding, which will exacerbate government’s fiscal pressures as result of pandemic
  • Biden administration will step up engagement with Ukraine, particularly over anti-corruption progress and countering Russian aggression

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.