28 May 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we highlight how the pandemic has led to increased food insecurity across Latin America, as well as the economic and political instability in Colombia, Lebanon, and India.

 

28 May 2020 – Colombia

Predictions:

  • Evidence that corrupt officials are exploiting COVID-19 pandemic will increase public anger and raise reputational risks for some foreign firms
  • Ongoing need to urgently acquire medical supplies will create new opportunities for contract rigging and graft
  • Companies involved in health sector will face increased reputational risks during coming year as prosecutors continue their investigations

 

27 May 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • Rising food prices and increasing economic hardship will drive significant increase in protests across Latin America in late 2020 and beyond
  • As lockdown measures are relaxed, food shortages and rising unemployment will increase risk of large, violent and disruptive protests
  • Protests are most likely where anger against corruption is high and where pandemic has undermined hopes of economic improvement

 

27 May 2020 – Lebanon

Predictions:

  • Political infighting will ensure IMF talks are protracted, exacerbating economic weaknesses and further fuelling large-scale protests
  • Need for major public sector spending cuts will sustain demonstrations even if IMF loan is secured in coming months
  • Ongoing protests will raise risk of renewed surge in COVID-19 infection rates, potentially necessitating return to lockdown

 

26 May 2020 – India

Predictions:

  • Recession likely in 2020 despite newly announced economic rescue package
  • Package criticised for absence of fiscal stimulus measures, though international investors could benefit from opening up of key sectors
  • Business operations, especially in major cities, will remain hampered by COVID-19 related restrictions, labour shortages and supply chain disruption

For full assessments request the free weekly COVID-19 roundup here.