3 April 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we examine Colombia’s prison fatalities, Israel’s unity government and more.

 

2 April 2020 – Colombia

Predictions:

  • Fatal prison riots indicate rising tensions over Government’s response to COVID-19 outbreak
  • Vulnerable groups including the poor, informal workers, indigenous communities and refugees may increase protests during coming two months
  • Rising tensions will further complicate operating environment for foreign firms

 

1 April 2020 – Israel Palestine

Predictions:

  • Formation of unity government will allow authorities to step up efforts to address public health and economic challenges caused by COVID-19
  • Blue & White’s collapse will reduce Gantz’s leverage in coalition talks meaning final deal will heavily favour Netanyahu and allies
  • Stimulus package and planned mass surveillance of mobile phones will help to expedite resumption in economic activity in medium term

 

1 April 2020 – Syria

Predictions:

  • Poor state of healthcare system and inability to enforce prevention measures mean Government will struggle to address COVID-19 spread
  • Risk of significant outbreak will be elevated nationwide but risk particularly high in Idlib Province given dire humanitarian situation
  • Potential for protests remains very low for now but will increase if Government fails to ensure provision of staple goods

 

1 April 2020 – Lebanon

Predictions:

  • Measures to curb spread of COVID-19 will limit anti-government protests during virus outbreak but economic crisis will continue to fuel popular anger
  • Easing of protests amid curfew and other restrictions will allow traditional political factions to reassert themselves through support for popular issues
  • Continued need for external financial support will increase pressure on Government to renew engagement with IMF

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