30 April 2020
This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot
The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we assess China’s slow economic recovery post-pandemic, the Chinese government’s strategic lending to developing countries and more.
30 April 2020 – China
Predictions:
- Dramatic decline in growth and slow economic recovery from COVID-19 will raise political risks for ruling Party
- Government will increase fiscal and monetary stimulus in coming months to aid recovery, particularly focusing on infrastructure spending
- Unemployment and economic hardship will raise risk of protests, which will in turn prompt Government to tighten social controls
29 April 2020 – Egypt
Predictions:
- Extension to state of emergency will allow al-Sisi to consolidate authority as economic challenges caused by COVID-19 increase risk of unrest
- Effort to secure IMF financial support will likely require commitment to austerity measures in longer term, further increasing anti-government sentiment
- Government will be willing to reinstate restrictions on shops and businesses if COVID-19 infections increase dramatically over Ramadan
28 April 2020 – Indonesia
Predictions:
- Mudik ban will help limit geographical spread of COVID-19 but infection rates will continue to rise in coming weeks given delays in lockdowns
- Support from religious organisations will help ensure public compliance with ban, limiting criticism of Government as a result
- Peak of epidemic will likely occur in late May or early June, ensuring sustained rises in daily numbers of new cases until then
27 April 2020 – Global Themes
Predictions:
- COVID-19 will encourage more strategic lending by China to developing countries, with increasing focus on energy, health and technology sectors
- Beijing will be willing to offer further debt relief on a private, bilateral basis, with compromises most likely for strategically important projects
- Coordination of multilateral debt forgiveness will however be increasingly challenging due to competition between China and West
