30 April 2020

This Week’s COVID-19 Snapshot

The weekly snapshot provides expert insight on the outbreak and its widespread impact. In this edition, we assess China’s slow economic recovery post-pandemic, the Chinese government’s strategic lending to developing countries and more.

 

30 April 2020 – China

Predictions:

  • Dramatic decline in growth and slow economic recovery from COVID-19 will raise political risks for ruling Party
  • Government will increase fiscal and monetary stimulus in coming months to aid recovery, particularly focusing on infrastructure spending
  • Unemployment and economic hardship will raise risk of protests, which will in turn prompt Government to tighten social controls

 

29 April 2020 – Egypt

Predictions:

  • Extension to state of emergency will allow al-Sisi to consolidate authority as economic challenges caused by COVID-19 increase risk of unrest
  • Effort to secure IMF financial support will likely require commitment to austerity measures in longer term, further increasing anti-government sentiment
  • Government will be willing to reinstate restrictions on shops and businesses if COVID-19 infections increase dramatically over Ramadan

 

28 April 2020 – Indonesia

Predictions:

  • Mudik ban will help limit geographical spread of COVID-19 but infection rates will continue to rise in coming weeks given delays in lockdowns
  • Support from religious organisations will help ensure public compliance with ban, limiting criticism of Government as a result
  • Peak of epidemic will likely occur in late May or early June, ensuring sustained rises in daily numbers of new cases until then

 

27 April 2020 – Global Themes

Predictions:

  • COVID-19 will encourage more strategic lending by China to developing countries, with increasing focus on energy, health and technology sectors
  • Beijing will be willing to offer further debt relief on a private, bilateral basis, with compromises most likely for  strategically important projects
  • Coordination of multilateral debt forgiveness will however be increasingly challenging due to competition between China and West

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