09 July 2019

 

Predictions

  • Islamic State (IS) attacks in Tunisia reflect country’s importance as source of jihadist recruits, ensuring elevated risk of further strikes
  • IS will aim to carry out attacks ahead of planned October elections but limited capabilities will ensure risk of mass-casualty strikes remains low
  • Renewed pledges of allegiance from global affiliates will help IS maintain position as pre-eminent global jihadist group

Analysis

Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a double suicide bombing on 27 June in Tunis, the capital of Tunisia. The first bomber targeted a police patrol on Charles de Gaulle street in the city centre, fifteen metres from the French embassy, killing one police officer and wounding three civilians. The second attack targeted a national guard base in the capital’s al-Qarjani district, wounding four security personnel. On 3 July, police pursued a man they said was the mastermind behind the earlier attacks, leading to a stand-off in the Intilaka area of Tunis, before he eventually used a suicide belt to blow himself up.

IS carried out its first attacks in Tunisia in 2015, targeting both tourists and the security forces. In two attacks in the capital, 22 people were killed in a shooting at the Bardo National Museum in March that year, while in November…

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