10 May 2019

Predictions

  • Latest video by al-Qaeda’s leader will fail to significantly boost defections from Islamic State despite collapse of caliphate
  • Al-Qaeda affiliates will nonetheless retain advantages in stronghold areas, particularly Sahel and Yemen, for foreseeable future
  • Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula unlikely to carry out threat to target Saudi Arabia after execution of suspected Sunni militants in April

Analysis

Al-Qaeda’s al-Sahab media network released a video on 5 May featuring the group’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and focused on the career of Usama bin Laden. The video is part of a string of films entitled “Days of the Imam” that are centred on the life…

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