9 August 2019

 

Predictions

  • US-Turkish agreement on Syria “safe zone” will prevent instability but Islamic State (IS) remains poised to resurge in event of security breakdown
  • Group will look to increase attacks in north-eastern Syria to exploit continued Turkish-Kurdish tensions in coming weeks
  • IS will continue to associate itself with local insurgencies worldwide to maintain credibility as leader of global jihadist movement

Analysis

The US and Turkey reached a deal on 7 August to set up a “safe zone” in northern Syria. In a joint statement the two countries said they had agreed to establish a joint-operations centre in Turkey that will police a “peace corridor”, but gave no further details. Separately, on 7 August, Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for killing a Kurdish fighter in a bombing in al-Rashida, south of al-Hasakah. Separately, IS claimed responsibility for a car bombing that killed one civilian in the…

Request the full Assynt Report on this here.