04 July 2019

 

Predictions

  • Occupation of Hong Kong Legislative Council building will likely reduce appetite for further large-scale protests in coming weeks
  • Vandalism by student activists will justify swift crackdown by police in response to further small-scale protests, which remain likely
  • Current protest movement will gradually subside, but Beijing’s continued encroachment will sustain risk of further spikes in unrest in coming years

Analysis

Several hundred student activists forced entry into Hong Kong’s Legislative Council (LegCo) building in the evening of 1 July, before vandalising the corridors and the main debate chamber. Riot police allowed the protestors to proceed undeterred until midnight, after which tear gas was used to clear the area. Several hundred thousand people also took part in a demonstration on the afternoon of 1 July, marking the anniversary of the former British colony’s return to Chinese rule. This protest remained peaceful, although some of those attending…

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