16 May 2019

 

Predictions

  • China-US trade agreement remains likely, but conflict with US will become more complex, increasing challenges for businesses
  • Both China and US will harden their positions following latest tariff increases, reducing potential for progress in negotiations before Trump and Xi meeting in June
  • Economic conflict will become increasingly tied up with broader strategic competition, increasing associated risks for global trade-focused businesses

Analysis

The US increased tariffs from 10% to 25% on USD 200 billion of Chinese imports on 10 May, taking the total value of goods facing these tariffs to USD 250 billion. These primarily affect the industrial and technology sectors. President Trump also announced preparations to extend these tariffs to all remaining Chinese imports – a further USD 300 billion in goods. In response, China said on 13 May that it will…

 

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