30 May 2019

 

Predictions

  • Leading FARC commander’s criticism of peace deal will cause some ex-fighters to join other militant and criminal groups
  • Some former FARC members will likely join National Liberation Army group, increasing risk it poses to business over coming year
  • Government will continue to face internal pressures over calls to renegotiate elements of peace deal, although administration will remain stable for now

Analysis

Luciano Marin, alias “Ivan Marquez”, the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) top peace negotiator, said on 20 May that the insurgents’ decision in 2016 to demobilise and become a legal party had been “a grave mistake”. In response, Rodrigo Londono, alias “Timochenko”, the FARC party’s chairman, broke with Marquez on 23 May, saying the latter no longer represented the organisation. Londono also said that the group will remain within the post-war reintegration framework. These events followed a week of political upheaval caused by…

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