31 July 2019

 

Predictions

  • Militants will seek to step up attacks on tourism industry in coming months, but limited capabilities will ensure security services remain primary target
  • Any successful strike against aviation or tourism industry will prompt Western airlines to further strengthen security measures or implement more long-term flight suspensions
  • President al-Sisi will instruct authorities to step up raids against suspected militant cells in coming months and security services will foil majority of plots

Analysis

At least two people, including one civilian and a security services official, were killed on 18 July in an attack on a security checkpoint in Sheikh Zuwaid in North Sinai. One day earlier, militants executed four individuals in the town of Bir al-Abd, also in North Sinai, for alleged cooperation with the security services. Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for both incidents via its Amaq news agency. Separately, British Airways (BA) suspended all flights to Cairo International Airport on 20 July, citing security concerns, although it…

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