05 March 2019

Please see our predictions below:


Captured pilot’s return reduces likelihood of major military escalation with Pakistan but potential for skirmishes will remain elevated in coming months

Appetite for large military confrontation will remain low, particularly since domestic pressure for Prime Minister to take firm stance has eased

Further disruptive strikes and protests likely in Kashmir, which remains tense amid military and political crackdown, and perceived attempts to repeal special constitutional status


Tensions between India and Pakistan remain elevated but have eased slightly since 1 March, when Pakistan returned the Indian Air Force (IAF) pilot it captured on 27 February, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, as a…

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