17 May 2019

 

Predictions

  • Further restrictive US measures and continued absence of economic benefits from nuclear deal will increase risk of eventual collapse of agreement
  • Additional US sanctions on key sectors of Iranian economy likely in coming months
  • Rising US pressure will heighten risk of accidental confrontation with Tehran in Gulf

Analysis

President Rouhani announced on 8 May Tehran’s partial suspension of elements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), including its obligation to sell excess low enriched uranium and heavy water abroad. Rouhani also said Tehran would no longer observe limits on uranium enrichment unless the remaining signatories of the agreement – the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia – ensured the protection of Iran’s oil and banking sectors from US sanctions within 60 days. Meanwhile, the US announced new…

 

Request the full Assynt Report on this here.