16 October 2019

 

Predictions

  • Condemnation of civilian casualties in recent air strikes will not lead to wider criticism of Haftar, ensuring Tripoli offensive continues into coming months
  • LNA forces will intensify aerial bombardment particularly targeting areas…
  • Limited international pressure will entrench current stalemate and reduce…

 

Analysis

An air strike attributed to the Libyan National Army (LNA) killed three children after it hit a house near an intelligence base in Tripoli’s southern Al Fornaj neighbourhood on 14 October. It followed an LNA airstrike that injured several children at an equestrian club in the capital’s western suburb of Janzour on 6 October, an incident condemned by the US and UK, along with the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). In another attack a day earlier, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) accused LNA forces of bombarding Tripoli’s Misrata airport, injuring one person and damaging two aircraft. Separately, media reports on 8 October alleged that 35 members of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, had been killed fighting alongside the LNA since April. The reports alleged as many as 300 Wagner mercenaries are…

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