22 August 2019

 

Predictions

  • Moves by Maduro and Guaido to strengthen international alliances indicate that both are preparing for prolonged struggle
  • Maduro may agree to early elections in Norway-brokered talks, but will likely request that US lifts sanctions
  • Guaido could agree to Maduro running in fresh presidential elections, but there will be numerous challenges to holding successful vote

Analysis

Defence Minister General Vladimir Padrino signed an agreement with his Russian counterpart in Moscow on 15 August to facilitate visits by Russian warships to Venezuelan ports. Separately, representatives of opposition leader Juan Guaido were due to meet with senior officials in the Trump administration on 19-21 August to review their joint strategy to remove President Maduro from power. There have also been unconfirmed reports of the US holding talks with senior members of Maduro’s Government, including his key ally Diosdado Cabello. Maduro meanwhile temporarily suspended participating in talks with the opposition, mediated by Norway, on 6 August, after Trump extended US economic sanctions on the Venezuelan Government. The developments come amid heightened tensions…

 

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