14 November 2019

 

Predictions

  • Killing of Mormon family will erode confidence in Government’s ability to tackle crime but President will remain unwilling to alter security policy
  • Similar violent incidents are likely in coming weeks and will increase…
  • Government’s apparent inability to curb violent crime will weaken…

 

Analysis

Gunmen from a criminal gang killed six children and three women from an extended Mormon family who were driving across a remote area straddling the northern states of Sonora and Chihuahua on 4 November. The LeBaron family members, all of whom had dual US and Mexican citizenship, had been travelling in a three-vehicle convoy. Alfonso Durazo, the Secretary for Security and Citizen Protection, said that the authorities suspect that members of the La Linea gang attacked the LeBaron family’s SUVs because they believed they belonged to a rival gang called Los Salazar. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) said the authorities considered the attack an incident of “mistaken identity” and ruled out the possibility it would lead to changes to his security policy.

Members of La Linea and Los Salazar frequently target each other in the sparsely populated and mountainous regions of Sonora and Chihuahua, and criminal gangs typically patrol their respective territories in convoys of SUVs. In light of this, and given there is no indication that the criminal group behind the attack deliberately targeted the LeBaron community for its religious…

 

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