Newsweek

Posted: 20 June 2019

Iran conflict could ‘spiral out of control’ as Trump white house plots response to drone shootings

Falanx Assynt’s Geopolitical Intelligence Director Alex Sehmer comments in Newsweek’s article on the Iran-US conflict as Trump white house plots response to drone shooting.

Alexander Sehmer of the security and geopolitical consultancy Falanx Assynt, agrees. He told Newsweek it is “unlikely” that the U.S. would “retaliate directly to the shooting down of the drone.” However, the Trump administration may choose other avenues of attack.

The White House may explore “troop deployments or further sanctions on IRGC entities, but also by consolidating international support against Iran as a dangerous international actor,” Sehmer explained.

Washington is waiting for Iran to breach the limits on its uranium stockpiles imposed by the JCPOA— which it is due to do on 27 June—then it can call on the Europeans to abandon the nuclear deal, which commits them to support Iran economically, and further pressure Iran that way.

But until then, the Persian Gulf is a highly dangerous area. “There is a greater risk to shipping as seen in the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, there are potential fluctuations to the oil price around incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and with the increasing military build-up there is an increased potential for accidental escalation,” Sehmer warned.

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