1 August 2019

 

Predictions

  • Competition between Boko Haram factions will ensure continued high tempo of attacks, but violence will remain largely confined to North-East
  • Ongoing attacks will undermine military and government claims that Boko Haram has been technically defeated
  • Demoralisation and persistent insecurity elsewhere will mean that military will struggle to put down insurgency, although air strikes will limit group’s ability to expand scope of attacks

Analysis

Suspected Boko Haram militants killed at least 65 civilians on 27 July during a funeral service in the Nganzai area, roughly 50 km north of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State. While no faction of Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for the attack, the strike was likely in retaliation for a local civilian defence militia killing eleven Boko Haram militants two weeks earlier. The Nganzai attack follows several other militant attacks across the North-East in recent weeks. For instance, Boko Haram militants…

 

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