29 October 2019

 

Special Report

Predictions

  • Death of Islamic State (IS) leader will not significantly disrupt group’s operations in short term and risks provoking retaliatory attacks
  • Decentralisation of IS command structures means regional…
  • Inflammatory statements by US President will raise risk of…

 

Analysis

US President Trump announced on 27 October that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had been killed early that morning when US forces raided a compound in Barisha, 5 km south of the Turkish border in Syria’s Idlib Province. US troops based in Iraq reportedly stormed the site after several weeks of surveillance, having determined in June, using information from captured IS informants, that al-Baghdadi was moving between villages in Idlib. Trump said al-Baghdadi retreated into an underground tunnel during the attack, where he detonated a suicide vest, killing himself. US forces then removed al-Baghdadi’s remains and sensitive documents from…


 

Request the full Assynt Report here.