16 April 2019

Predictions

  • Military will seek to offer minimal concessions to end protests but sustained demonstrations and tensions within ruling council will raise risk of clashes
  • Army will seek to retain key positions despite African Union pressure and promise to ensure civilians are appointed to cabinet and prime ministerial roles
  • Arrests of al-Bashir’s associates will include Islamists but military efforts do not constitute anti-Islamist crackdown and will not inspire jihadist violence

Analysis

Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s newly set-up military council announced on 13 April plans to appoint a civilian prime minister and cabinet in a bid to calm ongoing protests that led to the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir….

Request the full Assynt Report on this here.

Related Coverage In the Media:

Omar al-Bashir: How Sudanese strongman stayed in power for 30 years, despite overseeing break-up of his country.

“It’s unlikely he will be made to face the International Criminal Court, which still has an arrest warrant out for him,” said Mathias Hindar, an analyst at Falanx Assynt.

Read the full coverage in The Independent here

Bashir will be tried in Sudan, says new ruling military council

 Mathias Hindar, an analyst at Falanx Assynt said he doubted the sincerity of the offer of dialogue, given the deep factions within the military establishment. He said there were strong vested interests within the army as well as in Sudan’s powerful National Intelligence and Security Service, and militias that had been loyal to Mr Bashir.

“Dialogue with civil society or activists is highly unlikely,” Mr Hindar said. “Any such statement would be a superficial concession to make the protesters go away. I don’t think it’s likely to happen any time soon.”

Read the full coverage in The Financial Times here