03 April 2019

Predictions

  • Erdogan remains popular despite loss of key cities in local polls, and dominance will only be threatened by longer term opposition coordination
  • Ruling Justice and Development Party’s strong nationwide voter share means it will feel little pressure to implement broad structural reforms and austerity
  • Formal opposition coalition with pro-Kurdish HDP highly unlikely due to Iyi Party’s anti-Kurdish stance, limiting potential for effective coordination in coming years

Analysis

The Supreme Election Council on 3 April announced a recount of ballots cast in eight Istanbul districts during the 31 March municipal polls, after the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) challenged results that showed it losing the city by around 0.27%….

 

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