17 May 2019

 

Predictions

  • Maduro’s moves against opposition show he will use recent coup attempt to strengthen his position
  • President’s moves to bring key opposition figures to trial will strengthen his Government, and deter further moves against him
  • Exploratory talks between Government and opposition in Norway unlikely to progress rapidly

Analysis

Venezuela’s Supreme Justice Tribunal (TSJ), which is loyal to de facto President Nicolas Maduro, authorised a range of criminal charges against twelve prominent opposition legislators of the National Assembly (AN) and stripped them of immunity from prosecution on 7 May. A day later, the Government’s Bolivarian Intelligence Agency (SEBIN) detained Edgar Zambrano, the AN’s First Vice-President. The TSJ’s and SEBIN’s moves came a week after a failed attempt by AN Chair and self-proclaimed Head of State Juan Guaido to organise mass military defections to topple Maduro. On 12 May, however, former Air Force General Ramon Rangel, once a…

 

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