18 October 2019

 

Predictions

  • Saudi negotiations will increase likelihood of temporary ceasefire and reduced southern violence, but neither will endure
  • Hardliners within Houthi ranks will refuse to abandon…
  • Houthis and Saudi Arabia will continue to engage in…

 

Analysis

Government sources on 14 October indicated that progress was being made in Saudi-brokered negotiations between the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Government, which reportedly aim to provide the STC with cabinet-level representation in exchange for placing its forces under government leadership. However, no deal has yet been signed despite several reports claiming one would be completed on 17 October. Meanwhile, over the last week Riyadh has deployed security forces to replace UAE-backed STC troops in Aden, who triggered the current dispute in August by attacking government-held sites and seizing key infrastructure. Separately, Saudi Arabia has reportedly conducted negotiations…

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