05 July 2019

 

Predictions

  • UAE troop movements do not constitute withdrawal and could increase risk of violence outside Houthi-controlled areas
  • Major drawdown of troops unlikely in coming months as Yemen remains key to Emirati foreign policy agenda
  • Redeployment of forces to areas exhibiting increased anti-UAE sentiment will heighten risk of clashes away from current frontlines

Analysis

The UAE has redeployed forces from areas near Aden and along the south-western coast in recent weeks, including from positions close to the Houthi-controlled city of Hodeidah. The reshuffle has seen ground troops, armoured squadrons and helicopters moved either back to the Emirates or to other areas of Yemen. The UAE has not formally commented on the movements, but officials have said off the record that they do not constitute a redeployment away from Yemen…

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